Bonncaruso's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2012

FOOD STAMP PRESIDENTS

2012-02-09T14:42:00.000+01:00

WATCH:

Guess under which two presidents were among the highest increases in the food stamp program in the last 30 years? One of the them had the highest percentual increase.

You would be surprised to hear the answer.

Larry Sabato: Video analysis of the Santorum sweep from Tuesday

2012-02-09T14:22:00.001+01:00

I will admit that I like Larry Sabato alot: he gives very incisive analyses, he is pretty fair and balanced and has a pretty good track record for predicting things.

Watch and listen to his words about how the conservative base of the GOP is still saying a resounding NO to Romney. It's worth about a quarter of an hour of your time:

WND poll (yes, WND): 20% of Republicans leaning toward Obama

2012-02-09T12:35:00.004+01:00

Just to be very sure of whom we are speaking here, WND is the extreme-right-wing rag that gives lots of credence to birthers like Joseph Farah. It is a virulently anti-Obama site that claims to be a new site.

But even their pollster Wenzel Strategies (Columbus, OH) is showing Obama considerably up on the GOP candidates, outside Ron Paul.

Here the headline of the WND article:

20% OF REPUBLICANS LEANING TO OBAMA!

2012 election looks like replay of 2008

"Editor's note: This is another in a series of “WND/WENZEL POLLS” conducted exclusively for WND by the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies.
WASHINGTON – For critics of Barack Obama, 2012 has been portrayed as a do-or-die year for the country – an election that will determine whether America stays on the road to European-style socialism or veers right to reclaim its positions as the most vibrant economy in the world and the home of individual liberty.

The latest WND/Wenzel Poll shows none of the current crop of Republican presidential candidates has solidified the base of the party, with one in five GOP voters leaning toward support of Obama in November.
The results are from the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. The poll was conducted Feb. 1-3, 2012, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.44 percentage points.

“The improvement in Obama’s prospects compared to the four remaining Republican challengers stems largely from two factors,” suggests pollster Fritz Wenzel. “First, Obama has largely avoided the political limelight while the GOP candidates savage each other with increasing intensity. Second, a smattering of evidence indicates that the economy is getting a little better, which helps the White House in the eyes of the voters. Secondly, the bloody fight for the Republican presidential nomination – by most estimations the nastiest GOP fight in memory – has really hurt the images of the challengers in the eyes of both Republicans and, especially, independent voters. For Republicans, each candidate carries with them now some taint that cannot be ignored.”

In every case except the match-up against Ron Paul, more than 20 percent of Republican voters said they are more likely to support Obama than the Republican challenger. And Ron Paul is close, as 19 percent of Republicans said they are more likely to support Obama than Paul.

Making the situation more bleak for opponents of Obama, independent voters are apparently quite put off with the Republican nomination fight. While polls last fall showed them leaning Republican by roughly a two-to-one margin, they are now either split evenly or favoring Obama...."

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Here are the latest Prez match-up numbers, with links:

Nr.	Pollster	Date	Sample	MoE	Obama	Romney	Mar.	Obama	Gingrich	Mar.	Obama	Paul	Mar.	Obama	Santorum	Mar.
	AVERAGE:	N/A	N/A	N/A	49,40	41,80	7,60	52,00	38,25	13,75	48,33	39,00	9,33	48,33	38,67	9,67



2	Wenzel Strategies (WND)	08.02.12	800 RV	+/-3.44	48	41	7	50	36	14	44	40	4	49	34	15	MR,NG,RP,RS
8	YouGov	08.02.12	1000 A	+/-4.0	51	39	12	54	36	18	51	39	12	52	37	15
7	Ipsos/Reuters	08.02.12	900 RV	+/-3.3	48	42	6	50	38	12
6	Rasmussen	06.02.12	500 LV	+/-3.0	49	42	7				50	38	12
5	ABC / WaPo	06.02.12	879 RV	+/-4.0	51	45	6	54	43	11
4	Rasmussen	04.02.12	500 LV	+/-3.0	47	43	4	49	41	8	45	42	3	44	45	-1
3	Rasmussen	03.02.12	500 LV	+/-3.0	45	45	0	49	41	8	45	42	3	46	44	2
2	YouGov	03.02.12	1000 A	+/-3.5	49	40	9	52	37	15	48	40	8	50	40	10
1	Rasmussen	01.02.12	1500 LV	+/-3.0	46	45	1	49	41	8	45	42	3	46	44	2

Just to remind, this is a poll for an extreme-right wing website... and is only one poll, but is for the most part in line with the rest. All of the polls are hyperlinked, but for the Wenzel match-ups, there are four separate links, they are listed at the far right, with the initials of the GOP candidates.

Of course, the Freepers are already starting to call WND "liberal" (chuckle, chuckle)

I was just about to trash Don Trump, but KOS beat me to it...

2012-02-09T11:37:00.003+01:00

In his video expressing his amazement that Rick Santorum won three contests in a row, Don Trump claimed that Rick Santorum got whipped in his 2006 Senate re-election by the most crushing margin ever. He also mis-reported his losing margin from 2006 as 19% (three times). Santorum lost by 17.4%.

Not true. Lie. False. Stoopid.

I was just getting ready to put out a thread on this, and damn, KOS beat me to it! :)

Here from KOS:

"Incumbent Senators Defeated by Largest Margins in a General Election:
1914-2008 (2010 - Bonncaruso edit...)
1980 Jacob Javits    33.8
1932 Wesley Jones    27.9
1968 Ernest Gruening    27.7
1964 James Glenn Beall    25.6
1938 F. Ryan Duffy    23.0
1978 William Hathaway    22.7
1928 Thomas Bayard    21.9
1958 Frederick Payne    21.6
2010 Blanche Lincoln 21.0
1934 Simeon Fess    20.6
1942 George Norris    20.4
1948 Joseph Ball    20.2
1946 David Walsh    19.9
1934 Roscoe Patterson    19.8
1946 Joseph Guffey    19.5
1930 James Thomas Heflin    19.4
1980 George McGovern    18.8
1958 John Hoblitzell    18.6
1922 Gilbert Hitchcock    18.6
1978 Floyd Haskell    18.4
1976 Vance Hartke    18.3
1976 John Glenn Beall    17.7
1974 Peter Dominck    17.7
1956 Herman Walker    17.5
2006 Rick Santorum 17.4 "

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I added Blanche Lincoln to that list. So, Santorum's drubbing in 2006 was not the worst one, it was the 25th worst.

You say that a presidential-ticket candidate who lost before can never win? Nope. Stop the presses:

1920 Presidential Election:

Harding / Coolidge (R): 60.32%
Cox / FDR (D): 34.15%

Margin: Harding / Coolidge (R) +26.17%, the largest winning margin in our Union's history - EVER.
Notice the Democratic VP candidate: FDR.

He came back 12 years later to defeat Hoover by +17.76% in 1932!

I am not saying that in the event that Santorum gets the GOP nod, that he can beat President Obama. He probably can't. But there is statistical, historical precedent that a candidate who has lost big in the past can come back to win later on.

2012 Minnesota GOP caucuses - preliminary results vs. 2008

2012-02-09T10:56:00.000+01:00

Minnesota 2012:

Preliminary results, compared to 2008: cold, hard statistics.

Minnesota 2008	Caucus Results -FINAL-		Margin	Minnesota 2012	Caucus Results -Preliminary-		Margin	Delegates (%)
Mitt Romney	25,990	41.37%	Romney +12,164 (+19.36%)	Rick Santorum	21,932	44.95%	Santorum +8,704 (+17.84%)	17	100.00%
John McCain	13,826	22.01%		Mitt Romney	13,228	27.11%		10
Mike Huckabee	12,493	19.88%		Ron Paul	8,222	16.85%		6
Ron Paul	9,852	15.68%		Newt Gingrich	5,272	10.80%		4
Alan Keyes	368	0.59%		other
Write-ins	299	0.48%		write-ins	141	0.29%
TOTAL:	62,828	100.00%		TOTAL:	48,795	100.00%		37 (of 40)	100.00%

GOP Voter turnout is not possible to gauge as Minnesota does not do voter registration by party affiliation.

Voter Turnout compared: 2012 over 2008:
Raw vote count: -14,033 votes (-22.34% growth rate)

Rick Santorum won the Minnesota "straw poll" primary/caucuses with 44.95% of the vote and a landslide +17.84% margin over Mitt Romney, who placed second. The percentage statistics compared to 2008 are similar to each other: in 2008, Romney won Minnesota with a percentage in the low fourties and his margin over John McCain was just about only 1.5 points greater than Santorum's margin from 2012. Plus, the two lower candidates were in the teens in both races (Huckabee, Paul in '08 / Paul, Gingrich in '12)

Mitt Romney slipped by 12,762 votes over 2008, which calculates to a 14.26% percentage slippage. That is a major shift over 2008. This is the second state that Mitt Romney won in 2008 that he has now lost in 2012.

Ron Paul only slightly improved his percentage over 2008 and moved from fourth to third place, but actually got less votes than the previous cycle. This is one of the few states where Ron Paul support has not double or even tripled.

Newt Gingrich showed continued slippage in his numbers and received only 10.80% of caucus votes.

Though no delegates were selected based on this straw-poll type of caucus,if the district and state conventions hold to the percentages from the primary/strawpoll, then the soft delegate delegations would look as they are depicted above in the table. Remember, those are only "soft" designations and are bound to change some. but at the 2008 Republican National Convention, Mitt Romney got ALL 41 of Minnesota's delegates pledged, so it is possible that Rick Santorum could be awarded all 40 of Minnesota's pledged delegates this time around. However, on the floor vote at the convention, 35 of MN's delegates voted for John McCain, 6 remained uncommitted. Here part of the MN rules for delegates: Unbounded. The 13 at large delegates to be selected on 05/24-26/2012 may be bound, if directed by the convention. This means that at least 27 of 40 delegates from MN can freely change their mind, even on the day of the convention.

2012 Colorado GOP caucuses - preliminary results vs. 2008

2012-02-08T22:06:00.002+01:00

Colorado 2012:
Preliminary results, compared to 2008: cold, hard statistics.

Colorado 2008	Caucus Results -FINAL-		Margin	Colorado 2012	Caucus Results -Preliminary-		Margin	Delegates (%)
Mitt Romney	42,218	60.11%	Romney +29,300 (+41.72%)	Rick Santorum	26,614	40.35%	Santorum +3,602 (+5.46%)	13	100.00%
John McCain	12,918	18.39%		Mitt Romney	23,012	34.89%		12
Mike Huckabee	8,960	12.76%		Newt Gingrich	8,445	12.80%		4
Ron Paul	5,910	8.42%		Ron Paul	7,759	11.76%		4
Other	223	0.32%		Other	126	0.20%		N/A
				---				--
TOTAL	70,229	100.00%		TOTAL:	65,956	100.00%		33 (of 36)

GOP Voter turnout, 2012 Colorado Caucuses:
65,956 / 1,097,688 = 6.01% VT

GOP voter turnout, 2008 Colorado Caucuses:
70,229 / 1,011,152 = 6.95% VT

Voter Turnout compared: 2012 over 2008:
all GOP voters: -0.94%
Raw vote count: -4,273 votes (-25.77% growth rate)

Rick Santorum won the Colorado caucuses with a surprise win of 40.35% and a +5.46% margin over Mitt Romney, who took second place.

Romney lost 25.22% on percentage over his performance in 2008 (-19,206 votes). This is the first Romney Primary state from 2008 that he has lost in 2012.

Ron Paul placed fourth in both cycles, but both his actual votes and his percentage improved in 2012.

2012 Missouri GOP primary - preliminary results vs. 2008

2012-02-08T22:02:00.000+01:00

Missouri 2012:
Preliminary results, compared to 2008: cold, hard statistics.

Missouri 2008	Caucus Results -FINAL-		Margin	Missouri 2012	Primary Results -Preliminary-		Margin	Delegates (%)
John McCain	194,053	32.95%	McCain +8,411 (+1.43%)	Rick Santorum	138,957	55.17%	Santorum +75,131 (+29.82%)
Mike Huckabee	185,642	31.53%		Mitt Romney	63,826	25.34%
Mitt Romney	172,329	29.27%		Ron Paul	30,641	12.17%
Ron Paul	26,464	4.49%		Newt Gingrich	0	0.00%
Rudy Giuliani	3,593	0.61%		uncommitted	9,859	3.91%		--
Fred Thompson	3,102	0.53%		other	8,585	3.41%		--
Uncommitted	2,097	0.36%		TOTAL:				--
Other	1,564	0.27%		---
TOTAL:	588844	100.00%		TOTAL:	251,868	100.00%		52 (of 52)	100.00%

GOP Voter turnout by party is not possible for Missouri, Missouri does not do Voter Registration by party affiliation.

Raw vote count: -346,835 votes (-58.90% growth rate)

Rick Santorum won the Missouri non-binding primary contest with 55.17% and a blowout +29.82% percentage margin over Mitt Romney. Mr. Santorum's winning percentage is jslightly under that of George W. Bush, Jr. from the 2000 primary contest in MO, but his margin is larger than Bush's and is the largest win for a Republican in MO primary history since at least 1988. Mr. Santorum won every county in Missouri - a clean sweep.

To contrast, Mitt Romney's second place win is considerably worse that his third place win from 2008 in terms of raw votes, but only 2.90% worse on margin overall.

Ron Paul nearly tripled his percentage of the vote (12.17%) over his performance from 2008 (4.49%).

Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot in Missouri.

The number and percentage of uncommitted delegates shot up almost ELEVEN-FOLD in 2012 over 2008, from 0.36% of the primary vote in 2008 to 3.91% in 2012. A sizeable percentage of uncommitteds in a 3-5 man race usually indicates voter dissatisfaction with the field of candidates. We saw similar statistics for the 1988 Democratic field.

This primary will not decide the delegates, but rather, they will be formally allocated at the upcoming Congressional District Conventions on April 21, 2012. In the past, Missouri was a "winner take all state", where the winner of the primary was given all the state's delegates. John McCain received all 58 of Missouri's delegates in 2008. If the conventions in March and April hold to this tradition, then Santorum should receive all 52 of Missouri's delegates.

Update on the very racist Hoekstra (R) ad...

2012-02-07T22:10:00.000+01:00

Remember this ad? I reported about it just yesterday.

Since then, two developments, both worth mentioning:

Twist number 1 in the tale of Hoekstra in Asia-baiting land:

Asian-American Elected GOPer Turns On Hoekstra After Ad | TPM2012

"Washtenaw County, Michigan Commissioner Alicia Ping (R) says she was leaning toward endorsing former Rep. Pete Hoekstra in the Republican primary for Senate. But that’s all over now. On Monday, Ping donated money to Clark Durant, Hoekstra’s longshot rival in the primary. She told me she’d publicly endorse him if Durant asks her to.

Why the change of heart? Hoekstra’s controversial Super Bowl ad, which the Chinese-American Ping called “demeaning”, is a part of it. But it was more Hokestra’s refusal to acknowledge that he’d made a mistake running the ad that really lost him Ping’s support.

“If he didn’t know it was racist on some level, then shame on him,” Ping told me in a phone interview Monday night. “He didn’t apologize or say ‘maybe it was over the top’ or anything. He said, ‘I stand by what I believe in’ and, ‘the liberals are just making a bigger thing out of it.’ Well that’s not the case at all. It’s offensive and it’s racist. It’s demeaning to the Asian-American population."

---------------------------------

Just to remind: Ms. Ping is a REPUBLICAN, not a Democrat. At least for now.

Twist number 2 in the tale of Hoekstra in Asia-baiting land.

An astute internetter checked out the html code behind Hoekstras site and found out that the woman used in the ad is described as "yellowgirl".

Probably not the best thing to do if you are claiming your are not a racist...

Here the tweet from this internetter, Derek DeVries:

And here the link to see the code yourself.

But just to be safe, I also made a screensave:

Not only is Hoekstra racist, he is really, really stupid.

Feel free to tweet your pleasure or displeasure out to Mr. Hoekstra here.

2012 GOP Nevada Caucuses: Preliminary results vs. 2008

2012-02-06T16:19:00.001+01:00

Nevada GOP caucuses 2012
Preliminary results (100% reporting), compared to 2008: cold, hard statistics.

Results and other stats are hyperlinked; feel free to check them out for yourselves. The summary contains interesting information. I promised to report the GOP contests with every bit as much vigor and clarity as I did for the Democratic Primaries in 2008 and the ensuing 2008 GE, and am keeping my word. All of this is non-partisan information. No judgement value. These are simply the hard, cold stats.

Nevada 2008	Caucus Results -FINAL-		Margin	Nevada 2012	Caucus Results -Preliminary-		Margin	Delegates (%)
Mitt Romney	22,646	51.10%	Romney +16,562 (+37.37%)	Mitt Romney	16,496	50.15%	Romney +9,540 (+29.00%)	14	100.00%
Ron Paul	6,084	13.73%		Newt Gingrich	6,956	21.15%		6
John McCain	5,650	12.75%		Ron Paul	6,175	18.77%		5
Mike Huckabee	3,616	8.16%		Rick Santorum	3,277	9.93%		3
Fred Thompson	3,519	7.94%		---	---	---		--
Rudy Giuliani	1,910	4.31%		---	---	---		--
Duncan Hunter	890	2.01%		---	---	---		--
Unallocated	-	-		---	---	---
TOTAL:	44,315	100.00%		TOTAL:	32,894	100.00%		28 (of 28)	100.00%

GOP Voter turnout, 2012 Caucuses:

32,894 / 471,292 = 6.98% VT (all GOP voters)
32,894 / 400,310 = 8.22% VT (all GOP ACTIVE voters)

GOP voter turnout, 2008 Caucuses:

44,315 / 482,487 = 9.18% VT (all GOP voters)
44,315 / 395,942 = 11.19% VT (all GOP ACTIVE voters)

Voter Turnout compared: 2012 over 2008:
all GOP voters: -2.20%
all GOP active voters: -2.97%
Raw vote count: -11,421 votes (-25.77% growth rate)

Summary

Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses with a majority win of 50.15% and a landslide +29.00% margin over Newt Gingrich, who took second place. This is Mr. Romney's first majority win of the GOP nomination contests thus far and also his largest winning percentage margin to-date.

Romney's winning percentage from 2012 is only 0.95% less than his winning percentage from 2008, but his winning margin is 8.37% LESS. Reason: improved percentage for the second place winner.

Newt Gingrich won 21.15% of the vote. There are no statistics from 2008 to compare him with.

In spite of taking third place in 2012, where he had second place in 2008, Ron Paul actually increased his percentage (18.77% in 2012 over 13.73% in 2008) and number of raw votes over 2008. And he is projected to get one more delegate than in 2008.

Rick Santorum won 9.93% of the vote. There are no statistics from 2008 to compare him with.

11,421 LESS caucus votes were cast in 2012 over 2008. That is a growth rate of -25.77%: in other words, GOP caucus attendance shrunk by a quarter, in spite of the fact that there are more active registered Republicans in 2012 than there were at the time of the caucuses in 2008. (See: GOP VT statistics above). This is the second GOP nomination contest in a row where turnout was less than in 2008 (see: Florida)

In terms of the counties in Nevada, Ron Paul won two counties: he retained Nye county from 2008 and picked-up neighboring Esmerelda county. Newt Gingrich won Mineral county. Mitt Romney retained the remaining 13 counties.

There were obvious problems with organization of basic electioneering at the caucuses, which resulted in a delayed vote count and ensuing tally in Clark County, but there was also a considerable delay in Lander County, for which no explanation at all has been given. Once all the details have been sorted out, I will be writing an analysis of what happened.

Just another twist in that posthumous baptism, unbaptism thingy...

2012-02-05T22:06:00.001+01:00

THEY'RE ALL SIKHS NOW!

From Mildy Relevant (dot) Com (tongue planted firmly in cheek):

(snark)

(/snark)

Now, one could make the argument that this belongs in the politics humour section, but the topic of posthumous baptisms is indeed a current event - and the backlash to it as well. So, through the humour is a serious message, I think:

"What comes around, goes around."

Oh Noes! Oh Noes! Another racist GOP ad! Whodathunk...

2012-02-05T21:42:00.002+01:00

You know it is really bad when even POLITICO feels forced to criticize a Republican.

Pete Hoekstra (R) is running for Senate in Michigan. The same Pete Hoekstra who failed in his bid for the GOP gubernatorial primaries in 2010. Yes, the same Pete Hoekstra who made false claims about WMDs in Iraq in 2006, for which there was a blowback from the Pentagon. Yes, the same Pete Hoekstra who put up a website about WMDs so detailed that it was feared that people could learn how to build WMDs from it - the site was taken down in November, 2006.

This is the ad he has that will run during the Super-Bowl:

1.) chinese sounding music: check including the use of a GONG for key words like "now" and "not".
2.) hot asian chick: check
3.) she speaks broken english the way we think an asian would speak "engrish": check
4.) chock full of stereotypes: check
5.) creates yet another image of China as "the enemy": check

But of course, this is not racist. Nosiree!!!

DAMN! but it gets worse...

Not only that, at Hoekstra's "Debbiespenditnow" website, take a look at the chinese characters all over the place, and, of course, the communist RED color:

That is just the first page of Debbie Spenditnow | Thanks to Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow China's economy is Growing

There are four more pages:

The GREAT WALL of Debt, instead of the GREAT WALL OF CHINA:

Look at all that artwork on that jet-plane:

Notice that China is depicted as a MONSTER:

Do these GOP clowns really think they can win by insulting entire ethnic/racial groups? I mean, do they have a spring loose, or what?

Vintage Newt: "Did you miss me" - or - you'll have to pry it from my cold, dead hands...

2012-02-05T10:54:00.000+01:00

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

He really is a stitch

Mitt will eventually get nominated, I think... but...

2012-02-04T00:32:00.000+01:00

apparently, along the way, Newt Gingrich is just absolutely hell-bent on knocking him up and down and every which was as much as he can.

GREAT write-up from TPM:

Newt Pulls Out All The Plugs On Anti-Romney Rhetoric

"After using the Occupy Wall Street playbook to attack Mitt Romney last month, Newt Gingrich is cribbing from the Tea Party’s anti-Obama files, identifying his rival as yet another co-conspirator in a vast leftist plot to destroy capitalism itself. Not a great sign for those Republican strategists who hope Romney’s Florida victory will quickly unite the party.

Addressing fired up supporters in a cowboy-themed Vegas bar on Friday, Gingrich offered a new depiction of Romney as a tool of George Soros who doesn’t respect the Founding Fathers and is little different from Obama himself.

Gingrich mentioned Soros, who gave an interview in Switzerland last week saying he expected Romney and Obama to pursue similar policies, more than a half dozen times in his speech. The billionaire financier received boos and jeers at almost every mention — one supporter shouted out “The Devil!”

“I do not believe the Republican party wants to nominate a George Soros-approved candidate,” he said, saying they need someone who “believes in the Declaration of Independence” rather than “somebody who is clearly against the American ideal.”...

...Even Newt’s prescription for defeating Romney is the same as for Obama: challenge him to an unmoderated Lincoln-Douglas debate where he’ll expose his secret liberalism for what it is.

And in case you were wondering if Gingrich is leaving anytime soon, Newt says “we’re going to contest this all the way to Tampa, and that’s why we’re going to win the nomination.”

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The cartoon says it all:

chuckle, chuckle...

One more gift for the DNC and Obama

2012-02-03T11:45:00.000+01:00

Oy!

One of Stephen Colbert's better moments

2012-02-03T11:35:00.000+01:00

He creates a new hashtag for Twitter to allow Romney and Newt to nuke each other more easily. This is some of Colbert's better stuff!

The Colbert Report
Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,Video Archive

Enjoy watching!